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Switch to Forum Live View The Shanghai Six, a new 'axis of evil'?
2 years ago  ::  Jun 06, 2012 - 8:00AM #1
CharikIeia
Posts: 8,301

These days, there is another meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO, or 上海合作组织), consisting of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Nations not excessively fond of their peoples' self-determination.


It seems quite obvious that US-president Obama's plan to refocus US military presence from the North Atlantic to the Pacific region - announced & explained by Leon Pannetta earlier this week - very much was a signal for these nations that the USA are prepared to challenge this organisation's strategic ambitions.


Will this be the future Cold War frontline?


english.peopledaily.com.cn/90883/7837570...
paktribune.com/news/Zardari-to-seek-full...
www.livemint.com/2012/06/05223044/India-...


tl;dr
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2 years ago  ::  Jun 06, 2012 - 8:28AM #2
Ebon
Posts: 10,148

Jun 6, 2012 -- 8:00AM, CharikIeia wrote:

Will this be the future Cold War frontline?



I doubt it. China (and potentially Russia) is just too lucrative a market.

He who oppresses the poor shows contempt for their Maker, but whoever is kind to the needy honors God. ~ Proverbs 14:31

Fiat justitia, ruat caelum

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2 years ago  ::  Jun 06, 2012 - 9:30AM #3
TemplarS
Posts: 6,865

Given the inclusion of Kazakhstan Uzbekistan, etc. it seems like this specific organization is much more concerned with Central Asia than the Pacific Rim.


Thus, it seems to me that this group is more apt to be concerned about the spread of radical Islamic activism into their countries (which it already has, actually) than anything the US does in the Pacific.


Not to say that China, at least,  cannot be expected to react to such US moves.  But China and the US have too much to lose economically for this to deteriorate into anything serious, at least for the forseeable future.

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2 years ago  ::  Jun 07, 2012 - 11:59AM #4
LeahOne
Posts: 16,400

Ah, yes - the grand Sino-Soviet alliance.....complete with 4 former 'SSR's.  I heard they've granted 'observer' status to a number of other nations:  Afghanistan, Mongolia, Iran and Pakistan. 


Somehow that just doesn't fill me with confidence that the intent is to MINIMIZE radical Islam as a political force.....more like co-opting it for goals of China & Russia.


I have extreme difficulty believing that this is intended to achieve anything that will be beneficial to the US or any other nation.

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2 years ago  ::  Jun 07, 2012 - 1:06PM #5
TemplarS
Posts: 6,865

China and Russia are certainly not happy about the US presence in Central Asia. In particular, the Russians have been upset about things like the airbase the US once had in Uzbekistan which presumably they still consider in their sphere of influence.  So this organization is not going to go out of its way to be  supportive of US interests.


But they are likewise certainly worried about radical Islam.  Both have minority Islamic populations in some areas (Uighurs, Chechens, etc.).  They no doubt see the 'Stans as important buffers; the last thing either of them would want is a radical Islamic government in those places.  Karimov (Pres of Uzbekistan) is a neo-Stalinist who has routinely made the list of worst dictators in the world, and who has kept a lid on Islamic radicalism.  That's probably just fine as far as the Russians and Chinese are concerned.


Iran is a bit of a different case; as the Chechens and Uighurs are Sunnis and not likely to be influenced much by Iran.  Iran is the big prize in the area and is useful to both Russians and Chinese as a balance against the US.  Plus, the Russians have a history of involvement in Iran going back to the 1800s; they were generally unsuccessful, losing out to both the British and the US in the days of the Shah.  So no doubt they saw the Revolution as a chance to recoup somewhat.


  

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2 years ago  ::  Jun 07, 2012 - 5:30PM #6
mytmouse57
Posts: 9,782

Jun 6, 2012 -- 8:28AM, Ebon wrote:


Jun 6, 2012 -- 8:00AM, CharikIeia wrote:

Will this be the future Cold War frontline?



I doubt it. China (and potentially Russia) is just too lucrative a market.




Yep, still far too many McDonalds, Wal-Marts and Starbucks to open in those markets. 

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2 years ago  ::  Jun 08, 2012 - 2:36PM #7
BDboy
Posts: 5,824

Jun 7, 2012 -- 1:06PM, TemplarS wrote:


China and Russia are certainly not happy about the US presence in Central Asia. In particular, the Russians have been upset about things like the airbase the US once had in Uzbekistan which presumably they still consider in their sphere of influence.  So this organization is not going to go out of its way to be  supportive of US interests.


But they are likewise certainly worried about radical Islam.  Both have minority Islamic populations in some areas (Uighurs, Chechens, etc.).  They no doubt see the 'Stans as important buffers; the last thing either of them would want is a radical Islamic government in those places.  Karimov (Pres of Uzbekistan) is a neo-Stalinist who has routinely made the list of worst dictators in the world, and who has kept a lid on Islamic radicalism.  That's probably just fine as far as the Russians and Chinese are concerned.



 


>>>>>>>>>>> Yes, Russians still thinks they have some influences and responsibilites in central asia. However USA worked very hard to establish good relationship with the dictator of Uzbekistan. So called Radical Islam never had any room in Asia but because of this dictator, it is there.


If you follow the pattern of Mubarak, Ghadafi, Saddam you will see what happens when you force people not to practice their faiths. Since Morocco has more liberal king there, you do not hear about "Radical Islamists" there. Neither do you hear about them from Malaysia or U.A.E.


I do not call it "Radical-Islam", I call it reactionary Islam. Throughout history of Islam (1400+ years) whenever people were forced to give up their identity or faith, they only got more attracted to it. Guess we get it from our "Father Adam"!  Wink


I tried to find many cases of Suicide bombers or similar movements in last 1400 years. Could not find any significant movements once we go past last 50 years. So this "Reactionary-Islam" is only "Reaction" to some very oppressive policies. This type of mentality was "Planted" during 80's when Muslims from all over the world were motivated to fight "God less Russians" in Afghanistan and they were trained by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, USA and Israelis.


We know how that "Plan" worked out for us....


 


Jun 7, 2012 -- 1:06PM, TemplarS wrote:


Iran is a bit of a different case; as the Chechens and Uighurs are Sunnis and not likely to be influenced much by Iran.  Iran is the big prize in the area and is useful to both Russians and Chinese as a balance against the US.  Plus, the Russians have a history of involvement in Iran going back to the 1800s; they were generally unsuccessful, losing out to both the British and the US in the days of the Shah.  So no doubt they saw the Revolution as a chance to recoup somewhat.


  




 


>>>>>>>>> Yes, supporting Iran costs little to both and it works as "Counter" to American initiatives against Russians and Chinese. For example our current defense secretary (Ex-CIA director) said he will put more navy resources in Asia in near future. Another "Motivation" to support Iran (For Russians) and Pakistan (China).


So USA will stay involved with all these countries. Because economies cannot effort lose out from future economic super powers. Also the defense industry needs another "Turf war" to keep the industry going. They will be out of business if US do not have a new enemy in China!!

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2 years ago  ::  Jun 15, 2012 - 10:48PM #8
rangerken
Posts: 16,408

This thread was moved from the Hot Topics Zone

Libertarian, Conservative, Life member of the NRA and VFW
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