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Switch to Forum Live View Another Great Depression?
2 years ago  ::  Apr 05, 2012 - 6:44PM #11
solfeggio
Posts: 9,085

Predictions about a coming Depression are all well and good, and they are possibly even prescient, for all anybody knows.  But, there are other factors at play in predicting what sort of world we'll be living in twenty or thirty years' hence.


For example, as the earth's population continues to increase exponentially, how will the earth be able to sustain this growing population?  As resources become less and less available and more and more costly, will the standard of living in industrialised countries decline? 


At least, this is how one blogger sees it: 


timprosserfuturing.wordpress.com/2010/06...


 


 

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2 years ago  ::  Apr 05, 2012 - 7:13PM #12
vra
Posts: 6,403

Apr 5, 2012 -- 6:29PM, teilhard wrote:


There are LOTS of Eco-Facts that are NOT "estimates" -- "linear" or otherwise -- such as the RELENTLESS drawing-down of Aquifers, the accelerating Loss of TopSoils globally, Salinization of Irrigated Fields, Emergence of New Diseases, increased "Desertification" in some Areas, the Loss of Genetic Diversity in World Seed Grains and other Food Crops, etc., etc. ...




So true. 


BTW, my approach to preparing for the future can be summed up as such: prepare for the worst but hope for the best.  This has carried me through many events in my life where it has so often helped me out.  And I think a country and even the world would be best served by following that advice. 


That doesn't mean we have to do everything we may think of immediately.  We well know that this pattern of global warming has been gradual over a couple of centuries, so we should realize that any real solution will also take time.  However, with that being said, the longer we wait before we start to move, the more difficulty we are likely to encounter and the more people may be seriously affected.  If I had a child possibly dying from a high fever, should I wait on the basis that this might go away? 


Anyhow, nice to see your input on this, Old Man. ;) 

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2 years ago  ::  Apr 05, 2012 - 7:44PM #13
solfeggio
Posts: 9,085

'Prepare for the worst but hope for the best.'


That philosophy - taken literally - has carried my husband and me throughout most of our almost fifty years of marriage.  (We've always said that it comes from our Jewish Black Forest heritage.)


It works, and I wish the world's leaders would take it to heart and start looking for solutions to at least some of the many the problems facing our planet and its life forms.


 


 

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2 years ago  ::  Apr 05, 2012 - 8:33PM #14
teilhard
Posts: 50,695

Global Climate Change is not "The Problem" ... It is ONE of the more obvious Indications that there are too MANY of us relentlessly altering Global EcoSystems EVERYWHERE ...


There will BE no Solution until AFTER The Crash, after which re-Adaptation to a Globally Changed Planet will be our only Hope ... My Hunch is that Indigenous Peoples who STILL know how to Live Off The Land, make Things, gather and harvest Foods locally opportunistically, will have the BEST Chance ... 


Apr 5, 2012 -- 7:13PM, vra wrote:


Apr 5, 2012 -- 6:29PM, teilhard wrote:


There are LOTS of Eco-Facts that are NOT "estimates" -- "linear" or otherwise -- such as the RELENTLESS drawing-down of Aquifers, the accelerating Loss of TopSoils globally, Salinization of Irrigated Fields, Emergence of New Diseases, increased "Desertification" in some Areas, the Loss of Genetic Diversity in World Seed Grains and other Food Crops, etc., etc. ...




So true. 


BTW, my approach to preparing for the future can be summed up as such: prepare for the worst but hope for the best.  This has carried me through many events in my life where it has so often helped me out.  And I think a country and even the world would be best served by following that advice. 


That doesn't mean we have to do everything we may think of immediately.  We well know that this pattern of global warming has been gradual over a couple of centuries, so we should realize that any real solution will also take time.  However, with that being said, the longer we wait before we start to move, the more difficulty we are likely to encounter and the more people may be seriously affected.  If I had a child possibly dying from a high fever, should I wait on the basis that this might go away? 


Anyhow, nice to see your input on this, Old Man. ;) 





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2 years ago  ::  Apr 05, 2012 - 8:39PM #15
mountain_man
Posts: 39,079

Apr 5, 2012 -- 4:55PM, vra wrote:

I have to admit I'm a bit mystified with your response.  With the population growth rate continuing to expand, and with the available resources getting harder and harder to find or get at, I frankly can't see any different result than the M.I.T. estimate in the long run.


I'm mystified by paranoia. I guess this kind of paranoia is akin to conspiracy theorists in that they get a feeling of power from knowing something bad about something they have no control over. The "population bomb" was predicted long ago, and cyclically ever since. The original collapse of society was supposed to happen sometime in the 1980's. Obviously it didn't. Technology took care of most of it. We figured out how to get more food production per acre and how to feed more people. More technologies are in the future, each one pushing back the bomb.


Dave - Just a Man in the Mountains.

I am a Humanist. I believe in a rational philosophy of life, informed by science, inspired by art, and motivated by a desire to do good for its own sake and not by an expectation of a reward or fear of punishment in an afterlife.
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2 years ago  ::  Apr 05, 2012 - 8:46PM #16
vra
Posts: 6,403

Apr 5, 2012 -- 7:44PM, solfeggio wrote:


'Prepare for the worst but hope for the best.'


That philosophy - taken literally - has carried my husband and me throughout most of our almost fifty years of marriage.  (We've always said that it comes from our Jewish Black Forest heritage.)


It works, and I wish the world's leaders would take it to heart and start looking for solutions to at least some of the many the problems facing our planet and its life forms.


 


 




 


Well, congrats on your 50 years of marriage, and I feel like my wife and I are novices at 45 years of marriage that we celebrated last month.  BTW, I wish you a happy Pesach if you observe it, and my wife and I are anxious because our one daughter is hosting our family seder for the first time. 

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2 years ago  ::  Apr 05, 2012 - 9:03PM #17
teilhard
Posts: 50,695

Yes, we have delayed "The Bomb" longer than most had expected, thanks to some temporary "Fixes" ... The RESULT of that Delay, unfortunately, will be ultimately a much LARGER Eco-Catastrophe ... The Planet does NOT have an INFINITE Carrying Capacity ...


Apr 5, 2012 -- 8:39PM, mountain_man wrote:


Apr 5, 2012 -- 4:55PM, vra wrote:

I have to admit I'm a bit mystified with your response.  With the population growth rate continuing to expand, and with the available resources getting harder and harder to find or get at, I frankly can't see any different result than the M.I.T. estimate in the long run.


I'm mystified by paranoia. I guess this kind of paranoia is akin to conspiracy theorists in that they get a feeling of power from knowing something bad about something they have no control over. The "population bomb" was predicted long ago, and cyclically ever since. The original collapse of society was supposed to happen sometime in the 1980's. Obviously it didn't. Technology took care of most of it. We figured out how to get more food production per acre and how to feed more people. More technologies are in the future, each one pushing back the bomb.






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2 years ago  ::  Apr 06, 2012 - 9:33AM #18
vra
Posts: 6,403

Apr 5, 2012 -- 9:03PM, teilhard wrote:


Yes, we have delayed "The Bomb" longer than most had expected, thanks to some temporary "Fixes" ... The RESULT of that Delay, unfortunately, will be ultimately a much LARGER Eco-Catastrophe ... The Planet does NOT have an INFINITE Carrying Capacity ...




 




Yes to the above, and it's a wonder to me why some seem to think that those folks over at M.I.T. are ignorant dolts.  No, I don't believe they walk on water, but the handwriting is on the wall even though the "timetable" is an estimate only. 


Yes, there no doubt will be some other "adjustments" along the way, but all one has to do is to turn on or read any coverage of international news to realize that some areas of the world have already arrived at crunch time, and that number almost without a doubt will expand. 

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2 years ago  ::  Apr 06, 2012 - 9:55AM #19
teilhard
Posts: 50,695

The Deniers and Dissemblers are do no one any Favors ...


Apr 6, 2012 -- 9:33AM, vra wrote:


Apr 5, 2012 -- 9:03PM, teilhard wrote:


Yes, we have delayed "The Bomb" longer than most had expected, thanks to some temporary "Fixes" ... The RESULT of that Delay, unfortunately, will be ultimately a much LARGER Eco-Catastrophe ... The Planet does NOT have an INFINITE Carrying Capacity ...




 




Yes to the above, and it's a wonder to me why some seem to think that those folks over at M.I.T. are ignorant dolts.  No, I don't believe they walk on water, but the handwriting is on the wall even though the "timetable" is an estimate only. 


Yes, there no doubt will be some other "adjustments" along the way, but all one has to do is to turn on or read any coverage of international news to realize that some areas of the world have already arrived at crunch time, and that number almost without a doubt will expand. 





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2 years ago  ::  Apr 06, 2012 - 10:05AM #20
Ebon
Posts: 10,145

Apr 5, 2012 -- 8:33PM, teilhard wrote:

Global Climate Change is not "The Problem" ... It is ONE of the more obvious Indications that there are too MANY of us relentlessly altering Global EcoSystems EVERYWHERE ...



True but climate change is the most pressing problem currently. It's the one we need to deal with either first or in conjunction with the others. We urgently need to switch to renewable forms of power (nuclear simply buys us a little more time since fissile material is a finite resource itself).


There will BE no Solution until AFTER The Crash, after which re-Adaptation to a Globally Changed Planet will be our only Hope ... My Hunch is that Indigenous Peoples who STILL know how to Live Off The Land, make Things, gather and harvest Foods locally opportunistically, will have the BEST Chance ... 



Sadly, I suspect you're right. Too many people have too much vested in the current state of affairs to admit the possibility of change before some catastrophe.


That said, I still believe in human imagination and ingenuity. Once the need becomes pressing enough to commit resources to looking for solutions, solutions can be found.

He who oppresses the poor shows contempt for their Maker, but whoever is kind to the needy honors God. ~ Proverbs 14:31

Fiat justitia, ruat caelum

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