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4 years ago  ::  Jan 30, 2011 - 9:50PM #51
Erey
Posts: 19,171

Jan 30, 2011 -- 7:35PM, Karma_yeshe_dorje wrote:


From what I have been reading, Egypt's élite is military. Generals and former generals run everything of note. The next government of Egypt cannot be democratic. That country has no infrastructure for democracy. In the immediate future I expect a lot of bloodshed, well beyond the hundreds shot so far! Further on, a relatively moderate Islamic republic is conceivable.





Would you say similar to Turkey whose military is really in charge?  However Turkey is staunchly secular (for a muslim country) and the military would not permit an Islamic republic.

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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 12:16AM #52
Karma_yeshe_dorje
Posts: 12,805

Erey:


I have read that Egypt has a very long history of authoritarian rule. And it was ruled from Turkey during the Ottoman Empire.


The Islamists are reportedly a substantial minority.


The Israelis are saying that the dictatorship is intending to ignore the continual rally downtown. Rather the führers will wear down the populace by means of a continuous business lockout.

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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 11:32AM #53
Karma_yeshe_dorje
Posts: 12,805

I have been reading blogs coming out of Egypt. The situation there is nasty!

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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 11:45AM #54
teilhard
Posts: 51,889

Iran (Persia) is an Intriguing Historical MYSTERY ...


For a VERY long Time, "Persia" was a fairly "Liberal" Inclusive Creative Ethos, set firmly AGAINST the Brutalities of Babylon and Assyria, and often both ready and EAGER to be Cosmopolitan in engaging other Cultures ...


One can only HOPE that such ANCIENT Character can be re-invigorated ...


Jan 28, 2011 -- 4:21PM, vra wrote:


Jan 28, 2011 -- 2:12PM, TemplarS wrote:


I have no doubt that if the US attacked Iran, Iran would respond as you say.  When it's your country under attack, you counter as you can.


I do not think for a minute Chavez or anybody else would.  He understands fully well that oil is the only thing he's got going for him.  You only benefit from high oil process if you are selling oil, a fact which OPEC has reduced to practice perfectly. 


In any case, we're not talking about Iran here (though it will be interesting to see if the Arab protests will rekindle any of the Iranian opposition).   Warped as they are in some ways, the Iranian leadership also fully understands the value of their oil, both to their nation and to the the countries that buy it.





As you're probably aware of, Iran is Shi'i and it's actually a group of imams that really are in charge of the country, and Shi'a Islam has very strong messianic-type tendencies that can get played out in rather violent and even somewhat self-destructive ways.  Many experts believe that if they were to get nuclear weapons that this group could well be tempted to even attack Israel knowing full well that Israel would virtually destroy Iran, but this would help bring on Ali's successor according to their beliefs.


As far as Chavez is concerned, I have less optimism about him that you do, largely because he has quite radical tendencies, plus he well knows that even if he were to temporarily cut off selling oil to us that we would beg to have him start shipments again (he's our 2nd greatest foreign source), but meanwhile the price of oil would skyrocket insuring him far greater profits.  To me, he's not to be trusted one iota.   





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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 11:48AM #55
TemplarS
Posts: 6,926

The problem is, I think, that the longer it goes on the less chance of any rational resolution.


You either have increased chaos, or brutal suppression such as what happened in Iran a year or so ago.  Neither will be good for the Egyptian people or the future of the country.


You've already got stuff like an attempted looting of the National Museum.  This is as self-destructive as you can get; however bad the economy, looking to build the nation under any future system, tourism is one great opportunity that is out there.  You also have Egypt understandably lobbying for the return of many of its antiquities currently in foreign museums. Fat chance of that happening now.  


 

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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 12:00PM #56
loveontheair
Posts: 4,057

Hello,


 


A friend who spent time there @ American University, he told me there are not any jobs. There are no jobs in Jordan. People are upset with the quality of life. The sooner they can make a transition the better. But like us, they need jobs.


 


love

Good works will never produce faith, but faith will always produce good works. loveontheair
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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 12:05PM #57
vra
Posts: 6,407

Jan 31, 2011 -- 11:45AM, teilhard wrote:


Iran (Persia) is an Intriguing Historical MYSTERY ...


For a VERY long Time, "Persia" was a fairly "Liberal" Inclusive Creative Ethos, set firmly AGAINST the Brutalities of Babylon and Assyria, and often both ready and EAGER to be Cosmopolitan in engaging other Cultures ...


One can only HOPE that such ANCIENT Character can be re-invigorated ...


Jan 28, 2011 -- 4:21PM, vra wrote:


Jan 28, 2011 -- 2:12PM, TemplarS wrote:


I have no doubt that if the US attacked Iran, Iran would respond as you say.  When it's your country under attack, you counter as you can.


I do not think for a minute Chavez or anybody else would.  He understands fully well that oil is the only thing he's got going for him.  You only benefit from high oil process if you are selling oil, a fact which OPEC has reduced to practice perfectly. 


In any case, we're not talking about Iran here (though it will be interesting to see if the Arab protests will rekindle any of the Iranian opposition).   Warped as they are in some ways, the Iranian leadership also fully understands the value of their oil, both to their nation and to the the countries that buy it.





As you're probably aware of, Iran is Shi'i and it's actually a group of imams that really are in charge of the country, and Shi'a Islam has very strong messianic-type tendencies that can get played out in rather violent and even somewhat self-destructive ways.  Many experts believe that if they were to get nuclear weapons that this group could well be tempted to even attack Israel knowing full well that Israel would virtually destroy Iran, but this would help bring on Ali's successor according to their beliefs.


As far as Chavez is concerned, I have less optimism about him that you do, largely because he has quite radical tendencies, plus he well knows that even if he were to temporarily cut off selling oil to us that we would beg to have him start shipments again (he's our 2nd greatest foreign source), but meanwhile the price of oil would skyrocket insuring him far greater profits.  To me, he's not to be trusted one iota.   








 


And there's a very good chance that this might well happen  in the future since the younger generation in Iran is not that interested in continuing on with the "Islamic revolution".  An interesting book that covers this is "Chidren of Jihad" by Jared Cohen, who spent some time in Iran interviewing many young people, and they overwhelmingly, he found out, want change back to a more liberal society.   

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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 12:09PM #58
vra
Posts: 6,407

Jan 31, 2011 -- 12:00PM, loveontheair wrote:


Hello,


 


A friend who spent time there @ American University, he told me there are not any jobs. There are no jobs in Jordan. People are upset with the quality of life. The sooner they can make a transition the better. But like us, they need jobs.


 


love




 


But the problem is that there's not really much of anything that the Jordanians have to offer, and there's good reasons not to invest there, especially since there's so much instability.  For example, if you were c.e.o. of a major corporation, would you recommend spending millions building a large facilty there, especially when you could have facilities built in other locations with low labor costs but much more stability?

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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 12:12PM #59
TemplarS
Posts: 6,926

Jan 31, 2011 -- 12:00PM, loveontheair wrote:


Hello,


 


A friend who spent time there @ American University, he told me there are not any jobs. There are no jobs in Jordan. People are upset with the quality of life. The sooner they can make a transition the better. But like us, they need jobs.


 


love




Correct. But jobs will not just magically materialize.  Government can provide some jobs, providing for basic needs like healthcare, upgrarding infrastructure and the like.  But that sort of thing will not sustain an economy by itself.


You need companies willing to invest, entrepreneurs willing to take a risk.  As I said, tourism has big potential, but only if the tourists are not afraid to visit.


So, you need stability.  The trick, in the Middle East, is how to get that without repression. 


 

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4 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2011 - 12:53PM #60
loveontheair
Posts: 4,057

Jan 31, 2011 -- 12:12PM, TemplarS wrote:


Jan 31, 2011 -- 12:00PM, loveontheair wrote:


Hello,


 


A friend who spent time there @ American University, he told me there are not any jobs. There are no jobs in Jordan. People are upset with the quality of life. The sooner they can make a transition the better. But like us, they need jobs.


 


love




Correct. But jobs will not just magically materialize.  Government can provide some jobs, providing for basic needs like healthcare, upgrarding infrastructure and the like.  But that sort of thing will not sustain an economy by itself.


You need companies willing to invest, entrepreneurs willing to take a risk.  As I said, tourism has big potential, but only if the tourists are not afraid to visit.


So, you need stability.  The trick, in the Middle East, is how to get that without repression. 


 





Hello,


 


I absolutely agree. There is no quick fix to Egypt's revolution. The longer this goes on I suspect lawlessness will continue and get worse. There needs to be a stable Gov't now not later--before any more people are killed.


 


love

Good works will never produce faith, but faith will always produce good works. loveontheair
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