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Switch to Forum Live View Boning up on polls
12 months ago  ::  Jun 22, 2012 - 10:43AM #1
Kwinters
Kwinters
Posts: 17,683
wp.me/pcXu2-wJ

Two good links for those who plan to follow the Presidential (and other) polls between now and Nov: the 'house effects' of polling firms and why the recent Bloomberg poll is probably an outlier.
Jesus had two dads, and he turned out alright.~ Andy Gussert

“Feminism has fought no wars. It has killed no opponents. It has set up no concentration camps, starved no enemies, practiced no cruelties. Its battles have been for education, for the vote, for better working conditions…for safety on the streets…for child care, for social welfare…for rape crisis centers, women’s refuges, reforms in the law.

If someone says, “Oh, I’m not a feminist,” I ask, “Why, what’s your problem?”

Dale Spender
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12 months ago  ::  Jun 22, 2012 - 4:22PM #2
Mlyons619
Mlyons619
Posts: 15,692

Yup, overall polls show Obama/Romney virtually neck-'n-neck.



General Election: Romney vs. Obama




Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEObama (D)Romney (R)Spread
RCP Average 6/1 - 6/21 -- -- 46.6 44.3 Obama +2.3
Rasmussen Tracking 6/19 - 6/21 1500 LV 3.0 43 48 Romney +5
Gallup Tracking 6/15 - 6/21 3050 RV 2.0 45 46 Romney +1
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13
Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 878 RV 4.2 47 44 Obama +3
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 2.9 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 3.4 45 44 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 2.9 47 46 Obama +1
IBD/CSM/TIPP 6/1 - 6/8 841 RV 3.5 46 42 Obama +4
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 3.0 43 43 Tie

See All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data




"No freedom without education"
            --Thomas Jefferson
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12 months ago  ::  Jun 26, 2012 - 12:46PM #3
Kwinters
Kwinters
Posts: 17,683

Jun 22, 2012 -- 4:22PM, Mlyons619 wrote:


Yup, overall polls show Obama/Romney virtually neck-'n-neck.



General Election: Romney vs. Obama




Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEObama (D)Romney (R)Spread
RCP Average 6/1 - 6/21 -- -- 46.6 44.3 Obama +2.3
Rasmussen Tracking 6/19 - 6/21 1500 LV 3.0 43 48 Romney +5
Gallup Tracking 6/15 - 6/21 3050 RV 2.0 45 46 Romney +1
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13
Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 878 RV 4.2 47 44 Obama +3
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 2.9 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 3.4 45 44 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 2.9 47 46 Obama +1
IBD/CSM/TIPP 6/1 - 6/8 841 RV 3.5 46 42 Obama +4
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 3.0 43 43 Tie

See All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data







And Obama is still ahead in the Electoral College count.



Romney: 38.7% +1.3 since June 18


Obama: 61.3%-1.3 since June 18

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


More geeky stuff link on the Gallup methodology.


wp.me/pcXu2-xs

Jesus had two dads, and he turned out alright.~ Andy Gussert

“Feminism has fought no wars. It has killed no opponents. It has set up no concentration camps, starved no enemies, practiced no cruelties. Its battles have been for education, for the vote, for better working conditions…for safety on the streets…for child care, for social welfare…for rape crisis centers, women’s refuges, reforms in the law.

If someone says, “Oh, I’m not a feminist,” I ask, “Why, what’s your problem?”

Dale Spender
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12 months ago  ::  Jun 26, 2012 - 6:51PM #4
aarroottoonn
aarroottoonn
Posts: 3,128

Jun 26, 2012 -- 12:46PM, Kwinters wrote:


Jun 22, 2012 -- 4:22PM, Mlyons619 wrote:


Yup, overall polls show Obama/Romney virtually neck-'n-neck.



General Election: Romney vs. Obama




Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEObama (D)Romney (R)Spread
RCP Average 6/1 - 6/21 -- -- 46.6 44.3 Obama +2.3
Rasmussen Tracking 6/19 - 6/21 1500 LV 3.0 43 48 Romney +5
Gallup Tracking 6/15 - 6/21 3050 RV 2.0 45 46 Romney +1
Bloomberg 6/15 - 6/18 734 LV 3.6 53 40 Obama +13
Associated Press/GfK 6/14 - 6/18 878 RV 4.2 47 44 Obama +3
Pew Research 6/7 - 6/17 1563 RV 2.9 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 3.4 45 44 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 2.9 47 46 Obama +1
IBD/CSM/TIPP 6/1 - 6/8 841 RV 3.5 46 42 Obama +4
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 3.0 43 43 Tie

See All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data







And Obama is still ahead in the Electoral College count.



Romney: 38.7% +1.3 since June 18


Obama: 61.3%-1.3 since June 18

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


More geeky stuff link on the Gallup methodology.


wp.me/pcXu2-xs




National polls are always worthless when we talk about the Presidential election. It is not how we vote.


The 538 number is probably true now, but obviously doesn't include Obamacares ruling, and ignores that the economy is going down. If that last trend continues, Romney wins big, big.
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