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Switch to Forum Live View Who will replace Assad?
6 years ago  ::  Jun 11, 2012 - 6:49PM #1
Posts: 19,045
Good question. Anyone have a good answer?

Who will replace Assad?

Op-ed: As Syria uprising nears decision point, opposition groups cannot produce apparent successor

Despite a Turkish and American behind-the-scenes effort to prepare Syrian opposition groups for the day after, the question of who will take power in Syria once President Bashar Assad falls remains without an answer.

The 24 organizations that currently comprise the Syrian National Council are split and face disputes, and according to some reports Syrian intelligence agencies managed to infiltrate them with “snitches,” alongside terrorists sent by al-Qaeda.
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6 years ago  ::  Jun 11, 2012 - 9:18PM #2
Posts: 4,643

There are many possibilities...

One of course is sectarian civil war... and unstable factioning... but that is already happening under Assad.

The Muslim brotherhood could consolidate power, but it is unclear how much of a following they really have.

Civil war is the best case scenario for hard corps Salafist Islamists because they can rely on gulf money to come to power.  In the absence of Assad, the question of whether a constitutional system can be put in place... if it can no ONE will replace Assad...

But the unfortunate reality is this: Assad is now doing what Saddam did before... creating independent sectarian elements capable of continuing to wreck havoc long after he falls.  In Iraq these sectarian groups teamed with Al-Qaeda... in Syria Hezbollah is the more likely ally.  The antics of these groups in Iraq (created by Saddam and his regime before, as and directly after they fell is three fold...

1. Continue to foment sectarian violence to remind everyone who used to rule the country. and extend the regime's arm for "justice" AKA revenge should they fall.

2. Ensure that the ensuing back and forth discredits the opposition and new government... when they eventually choose to retaliate with the same tactics losing their credibility.

3. Make a platform for eventual possible re-emergence coupled with an unpredictable quagmire western governments will be loathe to participate in.

What ever constitutional system is put in place... it will face challenges from Hezbollah and the Shabiha for some time  This will prompt the new government to turn a blind eye to Sunni Militia ethnic attacks on Alawi areas to avenge deaths against those they can't get their hands on... and will eventually lead to a security state that emerged to the similar crisis in Iraq... or a shaky alliance between ethnic militias like we saw in Lebanon. 

Then there are the Christians... this could take two paths... They are likely to be quiet with the new government but the before mentioned Sunni groups will likely occasionally hit Christians as well (and Salafis are mentioned next) and Alawi are likely to hit them to for sitting quietly with the new government and so may be seen as traitors to both sides.  On the other hand... Christians in Syria have close ties to family in Lebanon... Christian militancy was quite horrific in Lebanon... and we may see something we never saw in Iraq... though the situation may well end up between the two scenarios in the middle somewhere...

Lets not forget to mention the Salafist who are not numerous enough to truly effect any future government, though they might side line ideology for the beginning they will eventually be at odds with other Sunnis and the minorities.  The division we are now seeing between Salafis and the Muslim brotherhood is a positive thing in my view as it moderates the Muslim brotherhood from having to tailor its responses to the more extreme elements. 

For example Muslim brotherhood believes in a constitutional system... Salafis often decry such a system.  Many Muslim brotherhood types believe in laws rooted in Islam but specific to the country.  Salafis believe the ONLY source of law should be Islam.  Of course the brotherhood backed the repeal of marriage age laws in Egypt based on "Islamic" ideals even if not due to Islamic law exactly... kind of like in American the opposition to birth control and Abortion are solely religious... of course our system prevents religion from affecting things and easily dismisses the surface rationalizations pretending not to be religious on things like this and intelligent design....

But I digress...

JINSA had a different article about this subject too which I read part of today (I often disagree with JINSA but find it helpful to know what their line of thinking is, I have never been averse to reading opinions that disagree with me)

On another note... I was thinking of posting this other link earlier comparing the Muslim Brotherhood to Iran... This is from Sharq al Awsat... also makes some interesting points.  It isn't about Syria... and the influence of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt was a far more measurable thing under Mubarak than under Assad, as he allowed an amount of charity work by brotherhood linked groups to cover for his ineptness at dealing with the poor...

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6 years ago  ::  Jun 12, 2012 - 2:27PM #3
Posts: 4,643

an interesting layout on the possible nature of the opposition that fits this topic.

I can't speak for the source... but I can say that it mirrors what I have seen from Syrians in general.

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