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Switch to Forum Live View Europe never had influence, America is losing its influence, and the war against Western...
3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 4:44PM #1
platoonleader
Posts: 1,148

The Middle East in the last several years has significantly mutated or morphed. During the "Hamtana", the wait or build up to the "67" betwixt Egypt's President Nasser committing Casus Belli and OP/Focus. French President Charles De Gaulle told an Israeli diplomat..." "do not make war" or "do not shoot first".  France and Charles De Gaulle had just walked away from Algeria,at great cost and was trying to "reach a great accomodation with the Arab world", the the tenuous and self-serving "alliance" betwixt the UK, France and Israel forged previous to Suez had come to an abrupt end. And so did European influence or crediblity in the Middle East.

The EU governments attempt to influence Israeli "leftist" NGOs by direct financing of them. That sort of arrangement is illegal in the US and and many EU nations. Yet given almost non-existant influence in the Middle East generally and Israel specifically seems to have heightened EU desperation to be taken seriously.

A 2008 Pew Research report showed that in the previous four years anti-Semitism had risen substancially in Europe generally and with the exception of the UK European Nations had grown more hostile to Jews generally and Israel specifically.

Still today " there is a disturbing trend emerging across Europe anti-Semetism and zenophobia are on the rise." EU nations are trying to exert an influence on Arab Nations and on Israel as well ...that they just don't have.

EU nations can influence UNESCO some, but the UN Security Council not at all. The Syrian Crisis is an example . Catherine Ashton and EU Foreign Policy pronouncements are a "pathetic joke".

Even American "influence" is waning. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Gen Dempsey) some weeks ago visited Israel to convince Israel leaders not to strike Iran pre-emptively or at least not until after the upcoming US election. US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon also did visit Israel to sing the same song.

Given the events in Afghanistan and Iraq, it surely appears that US military strength has indeed ebbed. But the US most powerful weapon in the world....aid dollars, has also become less effective, less influential. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood has basically responded to US threats of reducing or eliminating aid with ...go ahead.

That appears to be much the same response from many Muslim or Islamic governments or organizations. Pakistan does NOT care if US dollars are dis-continued. Muslim or Islamic faith is NOT the "religion of peace" nor of this Century. Islamic Republics do not care if their populations and societies are mired in the 12 the Century. Their belief is that God's Law or obedience to...is more important than a modern or functioning society. North and South Yemen are just two examples.

So it appears that American influence has waned in Muslim countries. The US could never influence Israeli decision making re pre-emptive strikes or geo- political decisions that may determine the survival of Eretz Israel. 

French Diplomats wax poetic and whine about the recent Israeli government agreement with the Migron settlers, but to what effect? No one listens to European Diplomats anyway.

I think it was Lord Palmerston that said "Nations don't have friends, Nations have interests" Some Muslim countries appear to have less "national interests" and more inflexable religious dogma .  The US interest these days is President Obama's re-election
Israel's has always been survival.
 
It appears to me that EU governments never had any real influence in the Middle East. It may well be because of a very two faced colonial past in the Middle East. The PA needs American dollars, Egypt doesn't appear to want them.

The American F 35 problems may well be the impetus for Israel wean itself off US military aid. Israel military exports are rising. Israel is the 12 th largest exporter in military equipment in the world.

Even US influence in Israel is waning.

Even as all this is evolving in Israel and YESHA...the has been a intensifying of the "war of the worlds",  against western civilization     

Moderated by Miraj on Mar 23, 2012 - 12:27AM
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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 5:22PM #2
rocketjsquirell
Posts: 16,565

Platoonleader,


Do you have a link to your quotes? Unless the ideas expressed in your post are all your own, citing the origin of the points and facts can aid discussion.


European Influence (a really basic and therefore wildly limited and inaccurate assessment)


The influence of any country or group of countries on a "target" country or group of countries is determined by the good or harm which that country or group of countries can do to or for the "target" country or group of countries.


Thus the influence of various European countries, individually, depends on their economic effects on the target country and their military effects on the target country. A country like Luxembourg is not going to have a lot of individual influence, whereas a country like Germany will. The EU, as a consortium of countries can have a great deal of influence when it can act in a coordinated way, which is difficult. 


Since Israel is economically tied into the EU, European coutnries have influence over Israeli policies and practices. Influence does not mean they get to call the shots. It means they get to be heard. That is why you will see a fair amount of diplomatic activity (and diplomatic squabbling when one side thinks the other side is not listening to the obviously correct opinion and advise being given) between the European nations and Israel.


Some Arab countries such as Morrocco, Tunisia and Algeria are also tied into the European economy and therefore Europe and European copuntries will have influence in those countries.


European countries are tied into the economies and dependent on some Arab countries such as KSA, the Gulf States, etc... for natural resources and therefore you will find that those countries have influence in European countries.


Some Arab countries are neither tied into the European economy nor produce products which the European countries need. In those cases, such as Syria, Europe has less influence.


USA influence


The above analysis also holds true for the USA. However, the USA, also has the ability to project military power, which gives it added clout in certain circumstances and presents additional problems for US influence in others. 


RUSSIAN influence


See US influence and do not forget Russia is closer.


CHINESE influence


Also works the same way as US influence


etc....


In general you will find that all countries do what they perceive to be in their best interests and try to get other countries to help them. Countries are not always correct in their assessment of what their best interests are.


Islam is a religion and  a civilization. There are aspects of Islamic civilization which differ from Western Civilization and which are at odds with Western Civilization. Islam, as a civilization, can only be said to be "at war with Western Civilization" to the extent that there are efforts to alter Western Civilization to make it comport to Islamic Civilization. (This works both ways)  In what ways are you thinking Islamic civilization is trying to alter Western Civilization and visa versa?

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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 5:50PM #3
platoonleader
Posts: 1,148

Oh Dear! I just "sorta assumed" most informed folks knew about Charles De Gaulle telling an Israeli diplomat not to "shoot first." I appear to have been mistaken in your case.


Your pontifications about economic interests re Israel and Europe notwithstanding...the fact is Europe has had NO or very little "influence" in Israel or an its government. That could also be said about both HAMAS and the PA.


American military "power" has declined somewhat, or its effects. Just look at Iraq and Afghanistan....what good is state of the art military equipment without the will to use it or stay the course. I again refer to the "68" Tet offensive.


It is indeed a"war of the worlds" against western civilization

Moderated by Miraj on Mar 23, 2012 - 12:27AM
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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 6:00PM #4
CharikIeia
Posts: 8,301

Mar 22, 2012 -- 5:50PM, platoonleader wrote:


Your pontifications about economic interests re Israel and Europe notwithstanding...



What % of Israeli exports go to the EU? What % of Israel's imports come from the EU? Just a reality check... Economic power is influence, and a government ignoring economic power is digging its own grave - see collapse of the East bloc.

tl;dr
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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 6:03PM #5
platoonleader
Posts: 1,148

Mar 22, 2012 -- 6:00PM, CharikIeia wrote:


Mar 22, 2012 -- 5:50PM, platoonleader wrote:


Your pontifications about economic interests re Israel and Europe notwithstanding...



What % of Israeli exports go to the EU? Just a reality check...




 


Indeed! And what influence has the EU had on Israel's policy re settlements? Just a reality check!

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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 6:09PM #6
CharikIeia
Posts: 8,301

Mar 22, 2012 -- 6:03PM, platoonleader wrote:


And what influence has the EU had on Israel's policy re settlements? Just a reality check!



Exactly as I said. They are currently digging their own grave. Which is a sorry sight to see, given the purpose of the State of Israel, and the high hopes with which the endeavour started. Now it's in the hands of suicidal maniacs, it seems, who see no alternative than marching on into the desert, without sufficient water to reach the other side, or return.

tl;dr
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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 6:13PM #7
platoonleader
Posts: 1,148

Mar 22, 2012 -- 6:09PM, CharikIeia wrote:


Mar 22, 2012 -- 6:03PM, platoonleader wrote:


And what influence has the EU had on Israel's policy re settlements? Just a reality check!



Exactly as I said. They are currently digging their own grave. Which is a sorry sight to see, given the purpose of the State of Israel, and the high hopes with which the endeavour started. Now it's in the hands of suicidal maniacs, it seems, who see no alternative than marching on into the desert, without sufficient water to reach the other side, or return.





Oh Dear Israel is "digging therir own grave". Well it is along way from Europe to Judea and Samaria....and those over 1/2 million settlers in Area C.


So much for all "that EU influence"

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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 6:29PM #8
rocketjsquirell
Posts: 16,565

OK, Here I am in the unusual position of agreeing with Chari and supporting European Governments and their actions (or at least trying to explain them in a very basic and therefore somewhat inaccurate manner).



The various European governments may or may not actually care about Jewish Communities being located in Judea and Samaria. However, they, like all other governments, play to various audiences, domestic and foreign. Undoubtedly, in order to maintain good relations with certain Arab states, the European governments wish to be seen as supportive of the positions of those states. Therefore, they may condemn “the settlements” whether or not they really care about the issue. If they do care about the issue and actually disagree with the idea that Jewish communities should be allowed in the historically Jewish lands of Judea and Samaria, they might not care enough to risk repercussions in their relationship with Israel over the issue or in their domestic affairs. (It is no skin off their backs who lives where, as long as it is outside of their own countries) The fact European governments may publicly complain about “the settlements” and basically do nothing about them is not necessarily reflective of their “influence”. It just reflects 1. their actual interest in the issue, 2. their interest in other issues, and 3. their determination of what is going to help them achieve their own domestic and international goals.

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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 6:36PM #9
CharikIeia
Posts: 8,301

Mar 22, 2012 -- 6:13PM, platoonleader wrote:


Well it is along way from Europe to Judea and Samaria....and those over 1/2 million settlers in Area C.


So much for all "that EU influence"



Israel is one of the smaller nations at the doorstep of the EU. Nothing less, nothing more, economically. Israel is a fruit and vegetable producer to the average European consumer - just like Egypt or Cyprus. They sell us beans, potatoes, strawberries, oranges. This is Israel's place in the general European public's eyes. Yes, there is more trade than mere agriculture, but the economic facts don't render Israel very important to the EU, to say the least, while the EU is significantly important to Israel.


What "influence" do you talk about here, anyway? Nations are by and large free to decide what they do, they are not bound by other nations' desires and wishes, unless they chose so. If Israel suddenly wants to opt out of the EU's mediterranean partnership, it can do that at any time point.


I think Squirrel is quite right in his sketch of European governmental considerations. Anything in Israel is not sufficiently important to affect much policy. Why raise your voice in a conflict that is not yours? The EU's prime goal in Israel & the Palenstinians' Areas is silence. Whoever makes too much noise will be perceived as obnoxious.

tl;dr
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3 years ago  ::  Mar 22, 2012 - 6:56PM #10
platoonleader
Posts: 1,148

Mar 22, 2012 -- 6:36PM, CharikIeia wrote:


Mar 22, 2012 -- 6:13PM, platoonleader wrote:


Well it is along way from Europe to Judea and Samaria....and those over 1/2 million settlers in Area C.


So much for all "that EU influence"



Israel is one of the smaller nations at the doorstep of the EU. Nothing less, nothing more, economically. Israel is a fruit and vegetable producer to the average European consumer - just like Egypt or Cyprus. They sell us beans, potatoes, strawberries, oranges. This is Israel's place in the general European public's eyes. Yes, there is more trade than mere agriculture, but the economic facts don't render Israel very important to the EU, to say the least, while the EU is important for Israel. What "influence" do you talk about here, anyway? Nations are by and large free to decide what they do, they are not bound by other nations' desires and wishes, unless they chose so. If Israel suddenly wants to opt out of the EU's mediterranean partnership, it can do that at any time point.




 


You folks obviously have not read the post you are commenting about.


The EU has its own issues with insitutionalized Jew killing, and anti-Semitiism.


The EU and Catherine Ashoton have had NO influence on the Arab / Israel conflict. YOU are bleating about Europeans and  Israeli "strawberries, beans and potatos".


If you were to read my post, you will see I am saying that EU diplomatic influence has waned, if it ever existed. I also alluded to Europe's two faced history in the Middle East...(Balfour...Sykes Picot, et al)


I also say that US influence in Muslim Nations is waning because these nations don't care about US AID dollars...they rather not have the dollars than "offend Allah"


Yes Char...those setlements are still there and NOT going anywhere

Moderated by Miraj on Mar 23, 2012 - 12:31AM
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