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Switch to Forum Live View The Morning After EMP
3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 3:09AM #151
DotNotInOz
Posts: 6,833

Not everyone lives where there are extremely vulnerable trees either. Hence, your statement, Hatman, that a tree falling on one's house is a CERTAINTY might well apply where you live but does not necessarily where others do. You didn't say anything initially about trees that obviously are infested with insects or have some other disease, you simply said that a tree falling on one's house is certain. 


Where I used to live, there was a problem for several years with Dutch elm disease making trees far more likely to fall on houses. So, yes, it was more of a certainty that a diseased tree would ultimately do so when that was occurring. Otherwise, it was possible but not nearly so likely.


Possible doesn't necessarily mean highly likely. As has been pointed out on this thread, it can also mean remotely likely.


 


 


 

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3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 3:10AM #152
DotNotInOz
Posts: 6,833

Aug 31, 2011 -- 11:59PM, mountain_man wrote:


Aug 31, 2011 -- 11:38PM, Paravani wrote:

An excerpt from the EMP Commission's 2008 report on "Critical National Infrastructures":....


No one here has claimed that EMP is not real, so all your attempts to prove it is are showing that you are not listening to what others are saying. The immediate threat is way out of proportion to it's actually happening. Of course things should be done to the national infrastructure to prepare for it, but I am NOT going to go around wearing a tinfoil hat because of the latest fad catastrophe.



 


Ditto.

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3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 3:13AM #153
Wanderingal
Posts: 5,504

Aug 31, 2011 -- 11:38PM, Paravani wrote:


Hi, All!


 


You know, these guys don't sound the least bit interested in Mayan prophecy.


Once again, I find it ironic that a thread about a scientific phenomenon is being derailed by those who insist it must be about religion.  And in particular, that those accusations come mainly from posters who claim that they are scientists! 


 






Claudia--do you know the difference between REPORTING on something that someone else has said and BELIEVING it yourself?


I do.......


 


 

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3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 3:21AM #154
DotNotInOz
Posts: 6,833

Guess you need to include a [satire alert!] caution in such postings, Wgal.


Like you, I'd have thought Robertson would dismiss as pagan superstition the supposed fact that the end of the Mayan calendar marks the end of the world. Perhaps he's gotten so desperate for something resembling evidence that people might believe that he's grasping at secular straws.

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3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 7:12PM #155
Paravani
Posts: 797

Aug 30, 2011 -- 5:59AM, DotNotInOz wrote:

I've got to agree that there's something pretty sick going on when the person posting this doomsday OP remarks, "Nifty, huh?" about a list of small-scale EMP occurrences.   Even if that's merely a "See? These can SO happen!", it is still bizarrely gleeful about events that are hardly cause for delight. It's akin to remarking about Hurricane Katrina, "Okay, people died, but it was just THE coolest hurricane!"   This is giving me the creeps.   I agree with Charikleia as well--disturbingly similar.



Hi, All! 


Hi, Dot!


Remind me to post a sarcasm warning next time. 


Really, you aren't at your best when you're posting in the middle of the night.


Sep 1, 2011 -- 3:09AM, DotNotInOz wrote:

Not everyone lives where  there are extremely vulnerable trees either. Hence, your statement,  Hatman, that a tree falling on one's house is a CERTAINTY might well  apply where you live but does not necessarily where others do.



I believe that Hatman was drawing an analogy -- between the inevitability of trees falling eventually, and the inevitability of a 100-year solar storm creating strong geomagnetically induced currents that will knock out essential components of our power systems.


And you're right, the analogy does fail because not everyone lives where there are vulnerable trees, but last time I checked we all lived under the same sun. 


It is in fact a certainty that we will experience another solar storm as intense as the one in 1859 -- the only uncertainty is when.  It is a certainty as well that we will experience another solar storm even worse than that one, perhaps even much worse -- again, the only uncertainty is when.


And it is a fact that our electrical systems are more fragile, more stressed, and include many more vulnerable components than ever before.  Even a much weaker storm than the one in 1859 can now cause power system failures, as happened in 1989.  From the bottom of page 42 of the "Critical Infrastructures" report-- 


Geomagnetic Storms. Probably one of the most famous and severe effects from solar storms occurred on March 13, 1989. On this day, several major impacts occurred to the power grids in North America and the United Kingdom. This included the complete blackout of the Hydro-Quebec power system and damage to two 400/275 kV autotransformers in southern England. In addition, at the Salem nuclear power plant in New Jersey, a 1200 MVA, 500 kV transformer was damaged beyond repair when portions of its structure failed due to thermal stress. The failure was caused by stray magnetic flux impinging on the transformer core. Fortunately, a replacement transformer was readily available; otherwise the plant would have been down for a year, which is the normal delivery time for larger power transformers.


Unfortunately, the higher voltage 765kV transformers that are being used now are even more vulnerable to "stray magnetic flux" than the 500kV transformer damaged in 1989.  And because they are extremely expensive "capital investment" items, our power systems do not keep full sets of spares on hand. 


(Due to increasing demand by India and China, current delivery time for high-voltage transformers is now 3-4 years.)


Love,


-- Claudia

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3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 7:21PM #156
Wanderingal
Posts: 5,504

GEO magnetic storms have been occuring ever since the sun existed--and on a pretty REGULAR basis--which means that we have ALL survived many of them during our lifetimes.


Are we supposed to start being scared of the regular activity of the sun now too?


What kind of life is it that involves being afraid of just about everything under the sun including one's own shadow--and the sun?


 


Besides now that we KNOW when the EMP event is going to occur that will destroy the earth we can all relax and just party down until December of 2012.


Don't you think those Mayans knew something--heck they PREDICTED the impending EMP event without even knowing what an EMP is!


 

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3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 9:15PM #157
mountain_man
Posts: 39,638

Sep 1, 2011 -- 3:08AM, Wanderingal wrote:

Bite your tongue!


Pat Robertson is the ne plus ultra in tv preachers and everyone knows that if HE says it's true--well by golly it MUST be true.


I know... many, way too many, people actually believe that. They just cannot comprehend that EVERYTHING that guy says is completely backwards, the exact opposite of reality.


What's extra-confusing is that he's quoting a PAGAN source at all....


He will quote any source, say anything, that will bring in the money. That's ALL he cares about. To quote any TV preacher as a source shows true desperation.

Dave - Just a Man in the Mountains.

I am a Humanist. I believe in a rational philosophy of life, informed by science, inspired by art, and motivated by a desire to do good for its own sake and not by an expectation of a reward or fear of punishment in an afterlife.
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3 years ago  ::  Sep 01, 2011 - 9:17PM #158
mountain_man
Posts: 39,638

Sep 1, 2011 -- 7:12PM, Paravani wrote:

....And it is a fact that our electrical systems are more fragile, more stressed, and include many more vulnerable components than ever before. ..


And not one person here has denied that. What we are commenting on is the level of hysteria that some people are bringing to the topic.

Dave - Just a Man in the Mountains.

I am a Humanist. I believe in a rational philosophy of life, informed by science, inspired by art, and motivated by a desire to do good for its own sake and not by an expectation of a reward or fear of punishment in an afterlife.
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3 years ago  ::  Sep 02, 2011 - 6:37AM #159
DotNotInOz
Posts: 6,833

Sep 1, 2011 -- 7:12PM, Paravani wrote:


Aug 30, 2011 -- 5:59AM, DotNotInOz wrote:

I've got to agree that there's something pretty sick going on when the person posting this doomsday OP remarks, "Nifty, huh?" about a list of small-scale EMP occurrences.   Even if that's merely a "See? These can SO happen!", it is still bizarrely gleeful about events that are hardly cause for delight. It's akin to remarking about Hurricane Katrina, "Okay, people died, but it was just THE coolest hurricane!"   This is giving me the creeps.   I agree with Charikleia as well--disturbingly similar.



Hi, All! 


Hi, Dot!


Remind me to post a sarcasm warning next time.



Uh-huh, sarcasm was it? Do append that warning in future. I might believe it but probably will be disinclined to do so when I suspect I was right-on that you were expressing a specialist's delight in and appreciation of past occurrences that caused notable damage along with what appears overall to be a disturbing degree of relish and alarmism about there being sometime (who knows when if ever in all our lifetimes) a massive EMP having doomsday consequences.


Really, you aren't at your best when you're posting in the middle of the night.



Neither this little personal dig nor pedantically pointing out to me that Hatman was using an "analogy" [emphasis in original] makes you more persuasive either.


Thank you at least for acknowledging that Hatman's analogy wasn't a good one.

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3 years ago  ::  Sep 02, 2011 - 10:33AM #160
Lonesentinel
Posts: 2,423

*yawn*...


Thanks Claudia for bringing up the possibility of what could come.  I am assuming that you are not bringing up this possibility to try to instill fear in anyone - but to just hopefully have an interesting conversation.  I can handle that - and if new things are discovered about the myriad of other disasters - i.e. Yellowstone Caldera, ELE at the end of the Cretacious Period, et cetera, please feel free to post what you find as I am too busy working & supporting my family to keep up on it all - besides, it VERY interesting to me.\


I dont know if I believe that an artificial EMP is likely in the next few years, but I have heard that 2012 is supposed to be an active 'solar flare' year.  Now with all of the other predictions about 2012, predictions from Nostradamus, instability of the U.S. Economy, et cetera, preparing for events that could affect my livelihood is something I do - to a certain extent.  For example, I am building my food storage area, have 2 cases of extra water on hand, building 'get out of dodge' bags, et cetera.  These items also are not just for 'emergencies, but I also use many of them to supplement my family's existence.


 I have an ammo can that I store a walkie talkies in - I use it for camping with family, better than cell phones for use between camp & hiking trails/hunting expeditions.  When we return to civilization, I recharge the units and place it back into the ammo can.The point I am making is that one does not need to buy a bunch of stuff one does not use often to make one more prepared for an 'emergency'.  Sure - I own a first aid kit I have never used, but that type of item is the exception. 


 

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