Not everyone lives where there are extremely vulnerable trees either. Hence, your statement, Hatman, that a tree falling on one's house is a CERTAINTY might well apply where you live but does not necessarily where others do. You didn't say anything initially about trees that obviously are infested with insects or have some other disease, you simply said that a tree falling on one's house is certain. 

Where I used to live, there was a problem for several years with Dutch elm disease making trees far more likely to fall on houses. So, yes, it was more of a certainty that a diseased tree would ultimately do so when that was occurring. Otherwise, it was possible but not nearly so likely.

Possible doesn't necessarily mean highly likely. As has been pointed out on this thread, it can also mean remotely likely.

Aug 31, 2011 -- 11:38PM, Paravani wrote:

Hi, All!

 

You know, these guys don't sound the least bit interested in Mayan prophecy.

Once again, I find it ironic that a thread about a scientific phenomenon is being derailed by those who insist it must be about religion.  And in particular, that those accusations come mainly from posters who claim that they are scientists! 

 

Claudia--do you know the difference between REPORTING on something that someone else has said and BELIEVING it yourself?

I do.......

Aug 30, 2011 -- 5:59AM, DotNotInOz wrote:

I've got to agree that there's something pretty sick going on when the person posting this doomsday OP remarks, "Nifty, huh?" about a list of small-scale EMP occurrences.   Even if that's merely a "See? These can SO happen!", it is still bizarrely gleeful about events that are hardly cause for delight. It's akin to remarking about Hurricane Katrina, "Okay, people died, but it was just THE coolest hurricane!"   This is giving me the creeps.   I agree with Charikleia as well--disturbingly similar.

Hi, All! 

Hi, Dot!

Remind me to post a sarcasm warning next time. 

Really, you aren't at your best when you're posting in the middle of the night.

Sep 1, 2011 -- 3:09AM, DotNotInOz wrote:

Not everyone lives where  there are extremely vulnerable trees either. Hence, your statement,  Hatman, that a tree falling on one's house is a CERTAINTY might well  apply where you live but does not necessarily where others do.

I believe that Hatman was drawing an analogy -- between the inevitability of trees falling eventually, and the inevitability of a 100-year solar storm creating strong geomagnetically induced currents that will knock out essential components of our power systems.

And you're right, the analogy does fail because not everyone lives where there are vulnerable trees, but last time I checked we all lived under the same sun. 

It is in fact a certainty that we will experience another solar storm as intense as the one in 1859 -- the only uncertainty is when.  It is a certainty as well that we will experience another solar storm even worse than that one, perhaps even much worse -- again, the only uncertainty is when.

And it is a fact that our electrical systems are more fragile, more stressed, and include many more vulnerable components than ever before.  Even a much weaker storm than the one in 1859 can now cause power system failures, as happened in 1989.  From the bottom of page 42 of the "Critical Infrastructures" report-- 

Geomagnetic Storms. Probably one of the most famous and severe effects from solar storms occurred on March 13, 1989. On this day, several major impacts occurred to the power grids in North America and the United Kingdom. This included the complete blackout of the Hydro-Quebec power system and damage to two 400/275 kV autotransformers in southern England. In addition, at the Salem nuclear power plant in New Jersey, a 1200 MVA, 500 kV transformer was damaged beyond repair when portions of its structure failed due to thermal stress. The failure was caused by stray magnetic flux impinging on the transformer core. Fortunately, a replacement transformer was readily available; otherwise the plant would have been down for a year, which is the normal delivery time for larger power transformers.

Unfortunately, the higher voltage 765kV transformers that are being used now are even more vulnerable to "stray magnetic flux" than the 500kV transformer damaged in 1989.  And because they are extremely expensive "capital investment" items, our power systems do not keep full sets of spares on hand. 

(Due to increasing demand by India and China, current delivery time for high-voltage transformers is now 3-4 years.)

Love,

-- Claudia

Sep 1, 2011 -- 3:08AM, Wanderingal wrote:

Bite your tongue!

Pat Robertson is the ne plus ultra in tv preachers and everyone knows that if HE says it's true--well by golly it MUST be true.

I know... many, way too many, people actually believe that. They just cannot comprehend that EVERYTHING that guy says is completely backwards, the exact opposite of reality.

What's extra-confusing is that he's quoting a PAGAN source at all....

He will quote any source, say anything, that will bring in the money. That's ALL he cares about. To quote any TV preacher as a source shows true desperation.

Sep 1, 2011 -- 7:12PM, Paravani wrote:

Aug 30, 2011 -- 5:59AM, DotNotInOz wrote:

I've got to agree that there's something pretty sick going on when the person posting this doomsday OP remarks, "Nifty, huh?" about a list of small-scale EMP occurrences.   Even if that's merely a "See? These can SO happen!", it is still bizarrely gleeful about events that are hardly cause for delight. It's akin to remarking about Hurricane Katrina, "Okay, people died, but it was just THE coolest hurricane!"   This is giving me the creeps.   I agree with Charikleia as well--disturbingly similar.

Hi, All! 

Hi, Dot!

Remind me to post a sarcasm warning next time.

Uh-huh, sarcasm was it? Do append that warning in future. I might believe it but probably will be disinclined to do so when I suspect I was right-on that you were expressing a specialist's delight in and appreciation of past occurrences that caused notable damage along with what appears overall to be a disturbing degree of relish and alarmism about there being sometime (who knows when if ever in all our lifetimes) a massive EMP having doomsday consequences.

Really, you aren't at your best when you're posting in the middle of the night.

Neither this little personal dig nor pedantically pointing out to me that Hatman was using an "analogy" [emphasis in original] makes you more persuasive either.

Thank you at least for acknowledging that Hatman's analogy wasn't a good one.