It looks like solar cycles are not in phase with solar irradiation influences on climate. New research now reveals that while solar activity reached a minimum in 2009, the preceding strong decline in UV irradiation was accompanied by an increase in visible and infrared irradiation levels. In sum, the net effect on the earth's surface temperature could be estimated to amount to an increase of about a twentieth of a degree Celsius.
This finding, although based on a short record from a potentially anomalous solar cycle, suggests that a major revision to our current understanding of solar forcing of climate may be in order.
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Now I am curious to hear the solar hacks of the past years add their mustard to this...
Current understanding suggests that radiative forcings over the course of an 11-year solar cycle are in phase with related influences on climate. Recent satellite data have revealed, however, that there seems to be a surprising spectral component to solar variability, at least in the declining phase of the current solar cycle: UV radiation decreases strongly while visible radiation increases. Joanna Haigh and colleagues now show that these spectral variations — when incorporated into a radiative-photochemical model — lead to decreases in ozone below 45 kilometres and increases above. As a consequence of the ozone changes, radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. This finding, although based on a short record from a potentially anomalous solar cycle, suggests that a major revision to our current understanding of solar forcing of climate may be in order.