This item in the Beirut Daily Star offers an interesting perspective.

SCUD FIASCO OPENS DOOR FOR ISRAELI AGGRESSION



Some excerpts:


{Snip}

While it remains uncertain whether Syria has provided Hizbullah with Scud missiles, as Israeli President Shimon Peres said two weeks ago, the Israeli charge unquestionably provides a major justification for the Israeli state to attack Hizbullah in the future, said Hilal Khashan, who teaches political studies at the American University of Beirut (AUB).

{Snip}

From one perspective, Israel is merely fishing for pretexts which would allow it to invade Lebanon and hammer Hizbullah, said Habib Malik, who teaches history at the Lebanese American University and is the son of Charles Malik, one of the founders of modern Lebanon and co-author of the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

{Snip}

In another view, if Syria has indeed smuggled Scuds to Hizbullah, it appears Damascus decided to raise the pressure in the region to draw US attention to the necessity of including Syria in the possible resumption of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, Khashan said.

But the ploy boomeranged when the US upped the stakes by calling into question all of Hizbullah’s rocket stockpile, said the AUB lecturer.

“The Syrians want to create a controlled crisis because the US has not been forthcoming on peace between Syria and Israel,” Khashan said. “Their plans have backfired. The issue now has gone out of control. The US has now brought up the entire Hizbullah missile arsenal.” Worsening the blowback, Syria might well find itself imperiled should a conflict erupt – if Hizbullah fires a Scud on Israel, blame would fall on Damascus, so Israel would be able to target Syria as well, Khashan added.

{Snip}



The introduction of Scud missiles would change that equation, however, and Israel is not reluctant to attack Hizbullah, Khashan added. In the first 72 hours of the 2006 war, Israel destroyed more than 90 percent of Hizbullah’s long-range rockets before they were launched, he said. “Israel can put [Scuds] out of commission in no time,” Khashan said.

“The Scuds changed the rules of engagement between Hizbullah and Israel,” Khashan added. “The crisis has put Israel and Lebanon on an eventual collision track. Peace talks will eventually fail. Israel can and, I think, eventually will destroy those Scud missiles. There is no doubt in my mind that the Israelis will eventually dismantle them.


{Snip}

The US is also using the contretemps to try to smooth over its spat with Israel, Salem said. The US and Israel clashed over the Israeli state’s public refusal to halt illegal settlement building in areas which would become part of a future Palestinian state, but the Scud issue has offered up a topic on which the US and Israel can share the same viewpoint, Salem added.

{Snip}

“It means that Lebanon is really f****d,” he [Retired Lebanese Army General Elias Hanna] said.

(Emphasis added)
{Snip}

Question:

Has Syria actually supplied scuds to Hezbollah?

Is it possible that Israel is sabre rattling in order to scare Assad into taking back any scuds he may have passed on to Hezbollah?

I'm guessing Assad figures his Alawite regime would not survive an all-out war with Israel?

Would a post-Alawite Syria remain allied to Shia Iran? Or would they gravitate towards Saudi Arabia? Which is better from the Israeli perspective?

Would Hezbollah really drag Lebanon into another war with Israel? One where the gloves would be off?

Is Lebanon "really f***ed" as the general suggests?

 

 

I think the general idea now is that Hezbollah has been given more advanced and dangerous weaponry than before...

But they were given weaponry before...

So would Israel up the ante on this one, or wouldn't they?

Last time the held back from going after Syria... though probably due to US pressure and the fact that what initiated the last conflict would have been seen as far more Serious overkill were Syria also attacked...

It depends on how it is played out therefore...

Whether or not they are Scuds... it seems that publicly at the least, Israel and the US agree that it is better arms than in the past...

Ever hear of intel?

 

It is called you don't show all your cards...

 

It may not have been sat...

 

It may have been... wouldn't be dumb to help them stop guessing so they could better conceal it the next time... or take out a mole...

 

seriously!!!?

Shows what you know...

 

Do I need to repeat my post?

 

the info may or may not been entirely by satellite...

 

either way... neither Israel nor the US requires proof of anything for now...

and I will repeat... if they know how the info, if true, was obtained...

they can prevent detection in the future...

again you don't show your cards...

again any nation can prevent ANY type of detection in one way or another...

Ricky wrote:

There is absolutely nothing that can be done by any nation on earth that can deflect satellite detection.  Show me those photos and I will believe the claim that illegal or dangerous weaponry has been sent across any border illegally.

Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of trucks cross the border between Syria and Lebanon daily. Many of these trucks haul containers. Satellite imagery cannot tell you what is inside the container.

If the Israelis have intel it is probably due to people they are paying off inside the Syrian Government and / or Hezbollah. They would be mad to reveal their sources.

That is the reality Ricky whether you like it or not.

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Edited to close up excessive blank space at end of post.