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Switch to Forum Live View What Should We Do about the Epidemic?
4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 7:44PM #21
Teknmage
Teknmage
Posts: 332

> In Mexico, about 70 deaths out of roughly 1,000 cases represents a fatality rate of about 7 percent. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, which killed an estimated 40 million worldwide, had a fatality rate of about 2.5 percent. <
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 7:49PM #22
Mlyons619
Mlyons619
Posts: 15,659

So are you saying the pandemic is iminent?


While the folks at WHO are worried about the possiblity they as yet have NOT gone out and said this.


Among the MILLIONS of humans, we have yet a tiny handful of folks who APPARENTLY have caught this strain.


But I'm not gonna go make a sign stating "THE END IS NEAR" over this just yet...

"No freedom without education"
            --Thomas Jefferson
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 7:52PM #23
whirlinggal
whirlinggal
Posts: 4,329

"So are you saying the pandemic is iminent"


 


 


 


 


 


NOBODY here has said that.


 


But please note that--contrary to your posts--the SWINE Flu IS passed from human to human
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 7:59PM #24
Mlyons619
Mlyons619
Posts: 15,659

IS?


Based on a thousand cases?


That's a MIGHTY SMALL SAMPLING.


You're talking rarer than rare right now.

"No freedom without education"
            --Thomas Jefferson
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 8:03PM #25
Teknmage
Teknmage
Posts: 332

> Worries that the new swine flu strain that has killed as many as 68 people and sickened more than 1,000 across Mexico has "pandemic potential" increased with the announcement that the virus has spread to Kansas and likely to New York City.


On Saturday, two new cases were confirmed in Kansas - the first U.S. cases outside of California or Texas. An additional case was confirmed in a 35-year-old woman in California, who was hospitalized but recovered. And New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden said tests showed that eight New York high schoolers had a type A influenza virus that was "probable" swine flu.


"What is concerning about this is that it is likely swine flu and second that it is spreading person to person," Frieden said. He added, "We have seen no increase citywide in flu-like cases."


"We don't think we can contain the spread of this virus," said the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat, Interim Deputy Director for Science and Public Health Program. "We are likely to find it in many other places."


The World Health Organization's director-general, Margaret Chan, said the outbreak of the never-before-seen virus has "pandemic potential."


This virus is a mix of human, pig and bird strains that prompted WHO to meet Saturday to consider declaring an international public health emergency - a step that could lead to travel advisories, trade restrictions and border closures. Spokesman Gregory Hartl said a decision would not be made Saturday.


Experts at the WHO and the CDC say the nature of this outbreak may make containment impossible. Already, more than 1,000 people have been infected in as many as 14 of Mexico's 32 states, according to daily newspaper El Universal. Tests show 20 people have died of the swine flu, and 48 other deaths were probably due to the same strain.


But CDC officials dismissed the idea of trying (to contain) that in the United States. They noted there had been no direct contact between the cases in the San Diego and San Antonio areas, suggesting the virus had already spread from one geographic area through other undiagnosed people.


"Anything that would be about containing it right now would purely be a political move," said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota pandemic expert. <
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 8:05PM #26
whirlinggal
whirlinggal
Posts: 4,329

An announcemnt on tonight's nightly news--


 


Swine Flu IS being spread from human to human.


 


There are now cases in the US in CA and TX and Nevada and Vermont and MASS and New York City.


 


 
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 8:10PM #27
Mlyons619
Mlyons619
Posts: 15,659

"...Anything that would be about containing it right now would purely be a political move," said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota pandemic expert...



If true, then there's no reason whatsoever to ban flights from Mexico, as that is akin to closing the pig pen gate after the pig has gotten out...

"No freedom without education"
            --Thomas Jefferson
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 8:19PM #28
Teknmage
Teknmage
Posts: 332

Apr 25, 2009 -- 7:49PM, Mlyons619 wrote:


While the folks at WHO are worried about the possiblity they as yet have NOT gone out and said this.




> By FRANK JORDANS, Associated Press Writer Frank Jordans, Associated Press Writer - Sat Apr 25, 4:56 pm ET


GENEVA - The World Health Organization warned countries around the world Saturday to be on alert for any unusual flu outbreaks after a unique new swine flu virus was implicated in possibly dozens of human deaths in North America.


WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said the outbreak in Mexico and the United States constituted a "public health emergency of international concern."


Chan made the decision to declare public health emergency of international concern after consulting with influenza experts from around the world. The emergency committee was called together Saturday for the first time since it was created in 2007.


In theory, WHO could now recommend travel advisories, trade restrictions or border closures, none of which would be binding. So far it has refrained from doing so.


At least 62 people have died from severe pneumonia caused by a flu-like illness in Mexico, WHO says. Some of those who died are confirmed to have a unique flu type that is a combination of bird, pig and human viruses. The virus is genetically identical to one found in California. <


 


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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 8:27PM #29
Mlyons619
Mlyons619
Posts: 15,659

"...The decision means countries around the world will be asked to step up reporting and surveillance of the disease, which she said had "pandemic potential" because it is an animal virus strain infecting people. But the agency cannot at this stage say "whether or not it will indeed cause a pandemic," she added..."


"No freedom without education"
            --Thomas Jefferson
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4 years ago  ::  Apr 25, 2009 - 8:29PM #30
MsMarchHare
MsMarchHare
Posts: 930

if you want to look at evolution at work....look at virus strains.


 


Not gonna call it an epidemic yet though.  Outbreak, yes....epidemic...no


 


Wash hands, cover mouth, see doctor if sick....not much left besides that
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