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Switch to Forum Live View Harsh winters threaten Mongols
6 years ago  ::  Jul 07, 2008 - 2:40PM #1
geologist
Posts: 3,143
Recent harsh winters have forced 500,000 Mongolian horsemen to abandon their nomadic lifestyle and to look for a new life in the cities.    I'm sure they would appreciate a little of the warming that the global warming alarmists have promised. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.j … lia103.xml

A short excerpt:

"Mongolia is one of the toughest places on earth to live and can boast the coldest capital - Ulaanbaatar - on the planet. Temperatures drop to at least -30C in winter. The country is frozen from November to March.

But four climactic disasters, known as 'dzuds', since 1999 have made life almost impossible for even the toughest of Mongolia's nomadic people who roam over a country three times the size of France. Three particularly harsh winters since 2000 have killed a third of the nation's livestock."
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 08, 2008 - 7:50AM #2
eadler
Posts: 4,449
[QUOTE=geologist;609388]Recent harsh winters have forced 500,000 Mongolian horsemen to abandon their nomadic lifestyle and to look for a new life in the cities.    I'm sure they would appreciate a little of the warming that the global warming alarmists have promised. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.j … lia103.xml

A short excerpt:

"Mongolia is one of the toughest places on earth to live and can boast the coldest capital - Ulaanbaatar - on the planet. Temperatures drop to at least -30C in winter. The country is frozen from November to March.

But four climactic disasters, known as 'dzuds', since 1999 have made life almost impossible for even the toughest of Mongolia's nomadic people who roam over a country three times the size of France. Three particularly harsh winters since 2000 have killed a third of the nation's livestock."[/QUOTE]

One must be careful about drawing conclusions from news articles. There seems to be more involved in a "dzud" than a cold spell in the winter time,. The subject of "dzuds" has been studied
in connection to climate change because of the high risk to the livelyhood of Mongolians.
Here is an academic paper that has gathered extensive data on the causes.

http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_pap … _No013.pdf
OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE IN MONGOLIA
Batima P., Natsagdorj L., Gombluudev P., Erdenetsetseg B.
AIACC Working Paper No.12
June 2005
"Mongolia has reason to be concerned about climate change. The country’s vast
population depends on livestock and other climate-dependent sectors. The subsector
of animal husbandry employs 47.9 per cent of the total population, produces
34.6 percent of agricultural gross production, and accounts for 30 percent of the
country’s export: clearly, animal husbandry plays a major role in the national
economy. Rangeland ecosystems and pastoral systems are complex, with
numerous interactions among the biotic components of the system and with human
society. Any adverse impact of a changing climate on pasture availability would
threaten forage yield, livestock productivity, and, ultimately, local and national food
production capacity (NAPCC, 2000). Hence, environment and climate condition
play a key role in the sustainable development of the country.
Climatic variability appears to be the major driving factor of livestock dynamics in
Mongolia. The rising temperature and uncertainties in rainfall associated with
global warming are likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of climate
variability and extremes. On the other hand, changes in climate also increase the
risk of unexpected changes in nature and environment. The greater the rate and
magnitude of change, the greater the risk of negative impacts.
.....


Harsh and long-lasting summer drought is the main factor which causes dzud to
occur during the Winter. In the Mongolian language, the term dzud describes a
natural disaster that occurs in the cold season (i.e., Winter and Spring) and
represents a threat to human and livestock populations.
Summer droughts of 1999-
2002 caused the most severe dzud in recorded history in the Winters of these
years (Natsagdorj 2002). At first glance, it seems that herders could benefit from
mild Winters caused by increased winter temperature, shortened CWD, and less
snow. However, some unexpected and unfavorable phenomena; e.g., sudden
rapid warming in winter, unusually high snowfall, surge snow and wind storms, etc.
have taken place in the last decade. Short, rapid (2-5 days) warming in Winter
leads to melting snow cover. Melted water does not infiltrate but creates ice sheet
on the ground surface since the ground is still frozen. Such cases create difficulties
in grazing of animals on pastures, limiting their ability to get food. During this
multitude of dzud, about 10 million animals have been killed. Such long-lasting
(three consecutive years) winter dzud following summer drought had not happened
in Mongolia in the last 60 years. The damage still has not been repaired.
..."

I am not denying that there were record cold months in the past winter in China and Mongolia,
but there is no evidence that these cold months represent a trend. Previous dzuds were associated with a drought and warm temperatures according to the paper.
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 08, 2008 - 3:20PM #3
geologist
Posts: 3,143
Global warming alarmists consistently  fudge the facts and deny the obvious.  It is the intense winter cold and blizzards that have decimated the Mongolian livestock.  There have been several harsher than normal winters in that region over the past decade.  Here's a report dated February 2, 2003 published by RCN, a global news network.

"Mongolia’s fourth successive savage winter is beginning to take a heavy toll on vital livestock and worse is to come, officials said on Thursday.

"Conditions are rapidly worsening with more blizzards forecast," said senior civil defence official Togoo, who, like many Mongolians, uses only one name.

Since the end of December, blizzards have killed four people and 80,000 head of livestock have died of starvation and extreme cold as snow blanketed land on which they would graze in a normal winter, officials said ."

It's the cold and snow that's the problem.  Too much of it.  And the trend has continued up through this most recent winter.   Twenty years ago, based on hype put out by the global warming alarmists, one would expect palm trees to be growing in Mongolia by now.
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 08, 2008 - 8:03PM #4
eadler
Posts: 4,449
[QUOTE=geologist;611791]Global warming alarmists consistently  fudge the facts and deny the obvious.  It is the intense winter cold and blizzards that have decimated the Mongolian livestock.  There have been several harsher than normal winters in that region over the past decade.  Here's a report dated February 2, 2003 published by RCN, a global news network.

"Mongolia’s fourth successive savage winter is beginning to take a heavy toll on vital livestock and worse is to come, officials said on Thursday.

"Conditions are rapidly worsening with more blizzards forecast," said senior civil defence official Togoo, who, like many Mongolians, uses only one name.

Since the end of December, blizzards have killed four people and 80,000 head of livestock have died of starvation and extreme cold as snow blanketed land on which they would graze in a normal winter, officials said ."

It's the cold and snow that's the problem.  Too much of it.  And the trend has continued up through this most recent winter.   Twenty years ago, based on hype put out by the global warming alarmists, one would expect palm trees to be growing in Mongolia by now.[/QUOTE]

Blizzards and global warming are not incompatible. The increase in water vapor content of the atmosphere can lead to more precipitation and extreme weather.
[urlhttp://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=79547[/url]
"Skeptics on the subject of global warming would point to the heavy amount of snowfall Chicago has experienced this year.     

However, they would be wrong, according to a sampling of scientific opinion.   

Experts caution that there may be more winters like this, where snowfall has so far nearly doubled the norm. But that would be only until it gets too hot to snow, they added.

“l n the simulations I’ve analyzed, you can get some quite big blizzards up until the year 2040,” said Raymond Pierrehumbert, professor of geophysics at the University of Chicago.  “But between 2040 and 2080, it starts to get too warm to have much snow at all and it gradually sort of peters out.”

Climatologists say snowfall is more difficult to predict than rain because it depends on a broader range of factors, such as atmospheric temperature and the la nina phenomenon in  the Pacific Ocean.  What they do agree on, however, is that warmer atmospheres can hold more precipitation."

The argument of "palm trees growing in Mongolia by now" is a straw man. No one predicted that.
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 09, 2008 - 4:45PM #5
geologist
Posts: 3,143
[QUOTE=eadler;612430]Blizzards and global warming are not incompatible. The increase in water vapor content of the atmosphere can lead to more precipitation and extreme weather.
[urlhttp://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=79547[/url]
"Skeptics on the subject of global warming would point to the heavy amount of snowfall Chicago has experienced this year.     

However, they would be wrong, according to a sampling of scientific opinion.   

Experts caution that there may be more winters like this, where snowfall has so far nearly doubled the norm. But that would be only until it gets too hot to snow, they added.

“l n the simulations I’ve analyzed, you can get some quite big blizzards up until the year 2040,” said Raymond Pierrehumbert, professor of geophysics at the University of Chicago.  “But between 2040 and 2080, it starts to get too warm to have much snow at all and it gradually sort of peters out.”

Climatologists say snowfall is more difficult to predict than rain because it depends on a broader range of factors, such as atmospheric temperature and the la nina phenomenon in  the Pacific Ocean.  What they do agree on, however, is that warmer atmospheres can hold more precipitation."

The argument of "palm trees growing in Mongolia by now" is a straw man. No one predicted that.[/QUOTE]

The problem with your analysis is  the Mongolian blizzards of the past several winters were accompanied by unusual cold, not unusual warmth.   And temperatures this past winter in Chicago averaged below normal also.
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 09, 2008 - 6:00PM #6
eadler
Posts: 4,449
[QUOTE=geologist;614202]The problem with your analysis is  the Mongolian blizzards of the past several winters were accompanied by unusual cold, not unusual warmth.   And temperatures this past winter in Chicago averaged below normal also.[/QUOTE]

Extremely cold air is incompatible  with heavy snowstorms. These occur when warm moisture laden air meets colder air from the north.
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 09, 2008 - 6:48PM #7
geologist
Posts: 3,143
[QUOTE=eadler;614355]Extremely cold air is incompatible  with heavy snowstorms. These occur when warm moisture laden air meets colder air from the north.[/QUOTE]

The fact is that Chicago averaged below normal temperatures with much above average snowfall this past winter.     In Ulan-Bator, Mongolia, there was 40 inches of snow in December with an average temperature of 2.3F.   So there can be lots of snow with very cold temeratures.   In January, the temperature in Ulan-Bator averaged -10F.  Accu-Weather Professional has this data if you want to check it, but you have to be a subscriber.
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 09, 2008 - 8:41PM #8
eadler
Posts: 4,449
[QUOTE=geologist;614433]The fact is that Chicago averaged below normal temperatures with much above average snowfall this past winter.     In Ulan-Bator, Mongolia, there was 40 inches of snow in December with an average temperature of 2.3F.   So there can be lots of snow with very cold temeratures.   In January, the temperature in Ulan-Bator averaged -10F.  Accu-Weather Professional has this data if you want to check it, but you have to be a subscriber.[/QUOTE]

Air masses can alternate. Average temperatures can be cold, but air which has a higher moisture content cannot be extremely cold. Blizzards form when a warm moist air mass mixes with a cold air mass. [/url]http://www.weatherwizkids.com/winter_storms.htmair masses mix.[/url]
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 11, 2008 - 3:05PM #9
geologist
Posts: 3,143
You're side stepping the key point which is that it has been unusually COLD!!!!!!! and snowy in Mongolia for the past several winters.
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6 years ago  ::  Jul 11, 2008 - 4:02PM #10
heldbygrace
Posts: 1,195
[QUOTE=geologist;618339]You're side stepping the key point which is that it has been unusually COLD!!!!!!! and snowy in Mongolia for the past several winters.[/QUOTE]

Don't you understand, Geologist, that whatever happens to the climate, even a 300 year period of global ice and snow, it's all part of the global warming trend which is being caused by CO2?
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