NOAA: Sunspot is Harbinger of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk for Electrical Systems
January 4, 2008

“This sunspot is like the first robin of spring,” said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “In this case, it’s an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years.”

A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms reaching a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur at any time. .."
..

Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar experts, NOAA issued a forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008, plus or minus six months. The panel was evenly split between those predicting a strong or weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the new cycle takes over the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it will be a strong season with many sunspots and major storms, said Biesecker. Many more sunspots with Solar Cycle 24 traits must emerge before scientists consider the new cycle dominant, with the potential for more frequent storms.

The new sunspot, identified as #10,981, is the latest visible spot to appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude location at 27 degrees North, and its negative polarity leading to the right in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle, according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle continue to form closer to the equator.
..."
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 … nspot.html

So the dire predictions of the Bodean's solar skeptics,  the "real solar guys", that we are in for a time without sunspots is not really spot on!

[QUOTE=Bodean;330154]eadler ....

That is OLD NEWS.  There hasn't been another cycle 24 sunspot since!  There was a cluster of 12 cycle 23 sunspots back in Feb, but that's hardly anything to write home about (for those of you out of the know, sun spots of different cycles have a different polarity signature ... during a minimum,there is a point where low activiyt of both cycles overlap). 

Currently, the sun is BLANK!!   http://www.solarcycle24.com/

I wish I could locate that site that had a graph of sun-spotless days per month.  Feb will be high!

This is the sunspot I was referencing when I mentioned Anthony Watts, and his question, if this sunspot could have been detected back in 1600-1700 during the Maunder Minumum.  It was a tiny sunspot.  There was a previous cycle 24 sunspot back in Dec, 2006.  There was a full year span between the two.[/QUOTE]

The physicist behind the dynamo theory says the cycle 24 will be strong and late in coming.
[url]http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060306_solar_cycle.html[url]
New Model Predicts More Intense Solar Storms Ahead
By Ker Than
Staff Writer
posted: 06 March 2006
03:42 pm ET

A new computer model which accurately simulates the Sun's past few solar cycles predicts that the next cycle will be up to 50 percent stronger than its predecessor and begin a year later than expected, scientists announced Monday.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Mausumi Dikpati and colleagues developed the model, which is detailed in the March 3 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, and announced their findings in a press conference today. ..
...
The new model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, has simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles extending back to the early 1900s with 98 percent accuracy.

Using the model, researchers predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the Sun. They also expect that the cycle will begin in late 2007 or early 2008--about six to 12 months later than earlier predictions--and reach its peak in 2012. ..."

This is the dynamo model you were telling me about earlier.

Of course there is no scientific consensus about sunspot models yet, as this link  shows:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2847.htm
NOAA ANNOUNCES NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL LIKELY START NEXT MARCH
April 26, 2007 � The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012—up to a year later than expected—according to a forecast issued by the NOAA Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts.
...
Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker. .."

The NOAA story is 1 year later than the dynamo story.

I think your favorite story is this one dated Jan 11 2005.:
http://www.stormingmedia.us/84/8494/A849434.html
unspot Cycle 24: Smallest Cycle in 100 Years?
"Predicting the peak amplitude of the sunspot cycle is a key goal of solar-terrestrial physics. The precursor method currently favored for such predictions is based on the dynamo model in which large-scale polar fields on the decline of the 11-year solar cycle are converted to toroidal (sunspot) fields during the subsequent cycle. The strength of the polar fields during the decay of one cycle is assumed to be an indicator of peak sunspot activity for the following cycle. Polar fields reach their peak amplitude several years after sunspot maximum; the time of peak strength is signaled by the onset of a strong annual modulation of polar fields due to the 7 1/4-degree tilt of the solar equator to the ecliptic plane. Using direct polar field measurements, now available for four solar cycles, the authors predict that the approaching solar cycle 24 (approx. 2011 maximum) will have a peak smoothed monthly sunspot number of 75 +/- 8, making it potentially the smallest cycle in the last 100 years. ANNOTATION: Reprint: Sunspot Cycle 24: Smallest Cycle in 100 Years?"

Actually eadler .. it is this story

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2847.htm

April 2007
"Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker. "

There are NO MODELS that have prospectively predicted solar cycles with any accuracy.

[QUOTE=PrHaug;330943]This is the site that I reference several days a week to check out sunspot activity.  It includes a chart for the past several months:

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/[/QUOTE]


Thanks!!  20 sunspotless days in February!

Did you notice the trend dating back into December??  Less and less spots, more and more spotless days!

[QUOTE=PrHaug;332365]I have noticed the trends; however, something more striking IMO is how horribly wrong the predictions were.[/QUOTE]


Yep!

Hey .. I found all the graphs, including the one you posted and more on the Solarcycle24.com site.  It was all behind the graphic that says "trends".

You should check it out.  Not really anymore informative than yours .. but the pictures are way more cool! ;)