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Switch to Forum Live View A simple mathematical proof for supernatural creation
7 years ago  ::  Jul 29, 2010 - 2:35PM #201
Posts: 28,191

Jul 26, 2010 -- 2:15AM, McAtheist wrote:

anthony: Of course the Koran has meaning, but its claims regarding God are false.

In your personal, unsubstantiated, unsupported opinion.  And why exactly are we supposed to care about your opinion and not the billions of equally unsupported personal opinions that contradict it?  (But this certainly illuminates the bias and skew in your thinking nicely, doesn't it?)


Here are some "odds" from real abiogenesis research (as opposed to the weird version presented in the OP):

* What are the odds that RNA will assemble out of ribonucleotides under conditions thought to be similar to early Earth? 1:0, a certainty, since it has already been done.

* What are the odds that those ribonucleotides will assemble out of pre-cursor molecules under conditions thought to be similar to early Earth? 1:0, a certainty, since it has already been done. (Synthesis of activated pyrimidine ribonucleotides in prebiotically plausible conditions Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Nature, Vol. 460, May 13, 2009.)

* What are the odds that those pre-cursor molecules were naturally occuring during the early history of the Earth? 1:0, a certainty, since they have been found in interstellar dust clouds and on meteorites.




And finally, if the chances of a simple life form arising through natural means in the billions of years of Earth's history really are so prohibitive, then think how impossible the chances are for the existence/formation of the infinitely more complex deity the original poster postulates instead. 


BEEP BEEP..back the truck up McAthiest... What are the  ODDS of it actually happening?

You evo's claimed it what are the odds?  

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7 years ago  ::  Jul 29, 2010 - 3:43PM #202
Posts: 20,246

Jul 29, 2010 -- 2:29PM, 57 wrote:

Jul 25, 2010 -- 10:23PM, amcolph wrote:

Jul 25, 2010 -- 3:32PM, Anthony wrote:

1. God does not make mistakes.

This is not a fact, it is an aritcle of your faith.

2. God wrote the Bible.

This is not a fact, it is an article of your faith, one which is not universally believed by Christians.

Even if we allowed them as logical premises, literal inerrancy could not be concluded from them.

If God does not make mistakes, and

If God wrote the Bible,

all that can be concluded is that the Bible is exactly the book God intended it to be.

That He intended Genesis to be 100% accurate literal history is a judgement you are not competent to make.

Yeah amcolph...and Jesus didn't really rise from the dead.  Perhaps He only partially rose?  On 30% of Jesus rose from the dead. 

It tells of the Resurrection of Christ in Genesis?  I thought it was in a different book altogether.

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7 years ago  ::  Jul 29, 2010 - 3:55PM #203
Posts: 3,449

Jul 29, 2010 -- 2:35PM, 57 wrote:

You evo's claimed it what are the odds?  


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3 years ago  ::  Mar 06, 2015 - 12:43AM #204
Posts: 3,779

I love this thread -- it gave an opportunity for a lot of people to present some good logic, math, and science.

I'm going to pick up on one thing:  those odds.  I begin with this:

Pr(S) =  1 – Pr(!S)  =  1 - 1/(10^40,000)  =  1 - ~0  =  1 (certainty)

I'm going to assume for the sake of argument that the 1/(10^40,000) is correct, despite all the flaws underlying it.  But there are some things missing, and they need to be addressed -- for example:

  • the number of sufficiently earth-like planets in the universe
  • the number of locations per planet where conditions could provide for the beginning of life
  • the number of chances per time unit for life to begin at each of those locations
  • the age of the universe during which sufficiently earth-like planets have existed

Just off the top of my head, I think these factors would drop the odds enough to knock off all the zeroes in the exponent, leaving the chance at 1/10^4.

But that neglects the fact that many molecules needed for life to form are found on asteroids and comets and interplanetary and interstellar gas clouds, and in all those cases there are means by which those molecules not only can bem but are known to, be delivered to planets.  I'll guess that brings us down to 1/10^2.

The chance of life appearing from the composition of the universe as we know it is no longer ~0.

Of course, I believe God intended there to be life here right from the start, so it's built in -- and indeed as reseearch progresses, life begins to look almost inevitable.  So to play the YEC game of making up numbers, I'm going to say that IMO the reverse of the OP is true:  that from the moment of Creation, the odds of life NOT "spontaneously" emerging in the universe is on the order of 1/10^40,000.

And the fact that it appeared here for us to calculate the odds is irrelevant; we just happen to be in the spot where it actually happened.

Or in one of them -- my personal belief is that God loves life, and so there's at least one sentient species per galaxy, galactic fragment, and galactic cluster, across the universe.

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